”If the layer of ice that is three kilometres thick in the Antarctic was to melt, the level of all the seas in the world would rise by 60 m.”
We have been discussing climate change for several decades now, and a wide variety of solutions have been weighed. Petteri Taalas, Secretary-General for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), has collected some central aspects and important actions to take in his new book entitled Ilmastonmuutos (Climate Change). I have included some highlights from the book below, but the whole book is worth reading as it will help perceive the overall situation. There is not much time to find a solution.
2/3 of warming comes from carbon dioxide
In his book, Petteri Taalas tells us that in the past century, the greenhouse gas levels have far exceeded those of natural variation. Carbon dioxide has produced two thirds of warming this far. The major cause for this is the combustion of coal, oil, natural gas, and peat. The fact that carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere for several hundreds of years poses a special challenge. In recent years, the use of fossil energy has produced more than 85–90 % of carbon dioxide emissions.
Climate change was already discovered in the 1970s — what has been achieved?
The book tells us that there exists scientific data regarding climate change dating back a long time. As early as the 1970s, it was shown that carbon dioxide emissions — and those resulting from human activity in particular — can have a significant effect on future climate. The first report by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) was published in 1988 and the key message was that climate change is a reality.
The Paris Agreement of 2015 set a goal to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C. IPCC’s report from 2018 stated that we possess the financial and technological means of reaching those goals. Getting there requires that we manage to decrease global emissions by 2025 and reach carbon neutrality by 2050. This is also the starting point for the EU Green Deal.
Floods, storms, droughts
Petteri Taalas writes that if we continue like this and fail to limit emissions, our whole planet will grow warmer by 3–5 °C and the Arctic by 8–12 °C. This would mean major changes to both snow and ice conditions and to the biota in the areas. As layers of snow and ice diminish, an increased amount of solar radiation remains on the Earth’s surface to increase its temperature and thus accelerate global warming.
Due to high temperatures, there is more evaporation and more atmospheric humidity. The average rainfall distribution has changed, and this has brought about floods and storms. Rising sea levels threaten low-lying lands; countries such as the Netherlands, Bangladesh, Denmark, Tuvalu, and Great Britain risk being submerged.
Precipitation has increased in latitude north, in the south-eastern and northern areas of South America. In Africa, southern Asia, Chile, and southern Brazil precipitation has decreased. For many African countries, their economy, employment situation, and adequate food availability are heavily dependent on agriculture. The situation is made even worse by strong population growth.
As the Arctic grows warmer, more than 75 % of the sea ice mass has already melted. The planet’s largest ice reserves are in the Antarctic and Greenland. Traditionally, glaciers have been able to regenerate themselves. The winter’s snowfall has packed into new ice, part of which has melted in summer to produce water for rivers. Their mass has steadily decreased as the climate becomes warmer. The ice mass of these glaciers has regulated sea levels globally. The book illustrates the seriousness of the situation: if the layer of ice that is up to three kilometres thick in the Antarctic was to melt, the level of all the seas in the world would rise by about 60 metres. If the Greenland glacier melted, sea level would rise by a little under eight metres. In over two centuries, sea levels have risen by 26 centimetres but now the melting takes place faster.
What are the actions that would count?
The book mentions that currently the world gets 85 % of its energy — regardless of purpose of use — from coal, oil, or natural gas, and only 15 % comes from renewable energy, hydropower, or nuclear power. In the production of energy, renewable energy, nuclear energy, and hydropower — as well as increasing energy efficiency — are existing means of decreasing the use of fossil energy. As to traffic, we can promote electronic traffic, public transportation, light traffic, biofuels, and hydrogen.
Petteri Taalas tells us that the 20 greatest economic powers in the word (G20) produce about 90 % of the planet’s carbon dioxide emissions. More than 50 % of the carbon dioxide (in 2018) comes from China (28 %), the United States (15 %), and the EU28 (9 %). Emissions by the EU and US have decreased in the past 20 years. However, we have seen a dramatic rise in China’s emissions between 2000–2010, after which the emissions levelled out somewhat but then started increasing anew in recent years. China produces industrial emissions so that consumers and companies in welfare states can be provided with affordable goods. The consumers and governments in these countries have a key role in decreasing the consumption of both products produced with fossil energy and oil and gas. According to Taalas, our diet, carbon compounds in forests, the number of children, and air travel all have an impact on the climate, but even more relevant factors include energy production, traffic, the industry, housing, and consuming goods produced with fossil energy.
Climate change provides us with the opportunity to develop new business activities, but this requires a steady investment outlook so that the profitability for these investments spanning several years can be guaranteed. As we have recently seen in the media, there are new innovations to replace, capture, and/or reuse carbon dioxide. Exxon, the oil company, is pumping carbon dioxide into the seabed and using the resulting pressure to extract even more oil out of old wells, while storing carbon dioxide in saline cavities at the same time (Helsingin Sanomat on March 15, 2021). Vantaa Energy has launched a global scale project to transform an energy plant’s carbon dioxide into fuel (Kauppalehti on March 8, 2021). S Group — the largest grocery trade operator in Finland — has set the ambitious goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2025. Actions related to the above require strong vision and leadership, and this is something we need more and we need it right now.
Finnish Minister of the Environment and Climate Change, Krista Mikkonen, wrote in Helsingin Sanomat (on March 19, 2021) that there is fast-growing demand for low-carbon solutions globally, and that we are now seeing investors detaching themselves from fossil fuels at a serious rate. Addressing the demand for low-carbon solutions guarantees the success for our economy that is so heavily dependent on exports. The Sustainable Growth Programme for Finland is the first large-scale economic package truly built from the perspective of climate work. The key principle for the package is that none of the expansionary measures must impede reaching the set goals for the environment and nature.
The coronavirus and its large-scale impact are the main daily news item everywhere. Yet according to Petteri Taalas, it is a small matter compared to the damage done to the economy and us humans unless we can curb climate change. We should attack the climate problem with the same solution-focused attitude. So, let’s roll up our sleeves — customers and decision-makers alike?
